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Livermore on climate change
Friday 16 March 2007
I should welcome comments on the following summary of Martin Livermore´s analysis of climate change. Would those of you who are believers in the conventional wisdom please tell me where there are errors in his thinking.
�� The scientific understanding of climate change is far from complete
(despite claims to the contrary).
�� It is clear from the evidence that the climate is always changing (but
not consistently: the trends and patterns depend upon the timescale
chosen); that the average CO2 content of the atmosphere has
increased relatively steadily over the last century; and that increased
CO2 in the atmosphere leads to some increase in temperature (other
things being equal).
�� However, it is by no means certain that increases in C02 concentration
and emissions are the dominant driver of climate change.
�� Computer models which seek to predict the effect of C02 on climate
are based on an incomplete understanding of a complex and chaotic
system.
�� Even measuring climate change meaningfully is itself an uncertain
science.
�� Current energy policy is driven by the reduction of carbon emissions.
However, in light of the uncertain science on which this is based,
more effective policies, focussed on long-term energy security, should
be pursued (each of these policies which will also, incidentally, reduce
carbon emissions).
�� These policies include building a new generation of efficient and safe
nuclear power stations; promoting greater energy efficiency; and
encouraging research into new energy technology.
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